Limited maritime truce and halt to energy strikes emerge from U.S.-mediated talks in Saudi Arabia, but implementation remains uncertain as Moscow conditions deal on sanctions relief
Russia and Ukraine reached a tentative agreement to halt naval hostilities in the Black Sea and suspend attacks on critical energy infrastructure INVC, marking a rare moment of diplomatic progress in a war now entering its fourth year.
The deal emerged from separate negotiations between American officials and Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Both countries agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea NBC News, according to statements released by the White House. The maritime corridor has been central to the conflict, with repeated disruptions affecting international grain exports and food supply chains across developing economies.
But the agreement’s viability remains in doubt. The Kremlin stated that the deal would only take effect after sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other financial institutions are lifted and they are reconnected to the SWIFT payment system Newsweek. The White House statements made no mention of these preconditions, highlighting a familiar pattern in negotiations where Washington and Moscow appear to hold fundamentally different understandings of what has been agreed.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Reuters the Kremlin could not trust Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and would only sign a Black Sea deal if Washington issued an order to him to respect it NBC News. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov countered that his country retained the full right to self-defense if Russia violated the agreement, particularly if Russian military vessels moved outside the eastern part of the Black Sea.
The maritime ceasefire holds particular significance for global food security. The Black Sea region serves as a vital export route for grain and fertilizer, with disruptions rippling across international markets since Russia’s invasion began in February 2022. U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said before the talks that the resumption of the grain deal would be the main focus, allowing both sides to move grain, fuel, and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea Al Jazeera.
Yet analysts suggest Russia stands to gain more from the arrangement than Ukraine. Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the defense studies department at King’s College London, noted that very little of the current fighting between Russia and Ukraine is taking place in the Black Sea, as Ukraine had managed to put the Black Sea Fleet on the back foot using drones, missiles, and other weapons Al Jazeera. The ceasefire could effectively allow Russia’s battered fleet a reprieve after Ukrainian strikes forced it from Crimea to ports further east.
The parallel agreement on energy infrastructure appears equally fragile. Both the White House and Kremlin statements said they would develop measures to implement an earlier agreement between Trump and Putin reached during a March 18 phone call to halt attacks on energy facilities Al Jazeera. However, Russia and Ukraine have already accused each other multiple times of breaching that understanding. Power plants, oil depots, and electricity grids have been frequent targets throughout the war, contributing to widespread civilian hardship.
Western experts expressed skepticism about the deal’s terms and implementation. The parallel talks in Riyadh produced little of use to Ukraine but something of use to Russia, particularly an agreement that the United States will lift restrictions on Russian agricultural exports, including by lifting certain sanctions Atlantic Council, according to analysis from the Atlantic Council. Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland and distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council, warned that the United States risks being sucked down a rabbit hole of concessions, easing pressure on Russia while Russian forces continue to attack Ukrainian cities and civilians Atlantic Council.
The White House said it would help restore Russia’s access to world markets for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems. But SWIFT is overseen by the central banks of the Group of Ten nations, meaning any decision to reconnect Russian banks would require coordination with European allies who have imposed their own extensive sanctions on Moscow.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the plan as a step in the right direction but added it was too early to say whether it would work Newsweek. He acknowledged having questions about implementation and expressed no faith in Russian promises, though he insisted Ukraine would remain constructive in negotiations.
The agreement does not address core drivers of the conflict, including territorial disputes and long-term security arrangements. Russia currently controls approximately 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, and neither the White House nor Kremlin statements mentioned security guarantees for Ukraine or efforts to regain seized land.
The talks in Riyadh were led by Russian diplomat Grigory Karasin and Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov, with American officials including White House National Security Council senior director Andrew Peek and Director of Policy Planning Staff Michael Anton facilitating separate discussions with each delegation. The arrangement echoes the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia exited in 2023, claiming difficulties in exporting its own agricultural products despite no formal sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer.
Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said that while there is no agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, the progress in Saudi Arabia may lay the groundwork for more substantial agreements in future Newsweek. He noted that further advances will depend on how all parties implement what has been achieved and whether they can align on the timing and substance of future agreements.
For now, the Black Sea deal represents a sector-specific de-escalation rather than a path toward ending the war. Whether it survives first contact with the complex realities on the ground—and competing interpretations of what was actually agreed—remains an open question.